Visualizing the Depravity of Trump's Refugee Proposal

For decades, the United States has set regional ceilings on the number of refugees it admits from each region of the world. These ceilings are adjusted on a yearly basis to account for “refugee resettlement needs and humanitarian policy priorities", according to the DHS' 2023 report. Refugee resettlement needs are shaped by geopolitical events like wars and famines; for example, in 2023, The Biden Administration increased the cap on Europe and Central Asia “from 10,000 to 15,000 [as] a result of the war in Ukraine.”

However, actual refugee admissions often lag behind the ceilings. In 2023, the total ceiling was 125,000 while admissions were only about 60,000. The DHS report pointed to global political developments to explain this discrepancy:

NGOs have attributed the slow rebound in refugee admissions from lower levels in 2018-2020 to a variety of factors, including longstanding impacts from funding cuts, program pauses, and increased vetting during the Trump administration.

Despite these discrepancies, it's clear that refugee ceilings are positively correlated with refugee admissions: the higher the ceiling, the higher the admissions. This chart from the Migration Policy Institute illustrates that dynamic:

Using data from the DHS report, I graphed the regional ceilings and regional admissions from 2023:

Comparing these graphs shows that, in general, each region’s share of admissions adhered closely to its share of the total ceiling. Africa’s ceiling was set at 32%, and in practice, they accounted for 40.8% of all admissions. Near East/South Asia’s ceiling was set at 28%, and in practice, they accounted for 33.6% of all admissions. This illustrates that, like the relationship between total ceiling and total admissions, regional ceilings are positively correlated with regional admissions: the higher the regional ceiling, the higher the regional admissions.

Reuters reported on August 15 that the Trump Administration is weighing a new refugee plan that lowers the total refugee ceiling from 125,000 to 40,000. This wouldn't be unprecedented; Trump lowered it in his first term, too. The real depravity lies in the new regional ceilings being considered. According to the Reuters report (bold text added for emphasis):

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is discussing a refugee admissions cap of around 40,000 for the coming year with a majority allocated to white South Africans... The two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said some 30,000 of the 40,000 spaces would be devoted to Afrikaners.

Here's a visual representation of that proposal:

The 2023 refugee ceilings reflected real-world humanitarian needs. In contrast, this proposal does away with any semblance of legitimacy; it allocates 75% of all refugee admissions for white South Africans. It’s fair to assume that refugee admissions will hew closely to these ceilings, meaning most of the world’s refugees will have to fight for the remaining 25%.

Trump’s second term is much different than his first. His worst impulses are no longer filtered through the “adults in the room”. Given that Trump himself recently accused South African president Cyril Ramaphosa of enacting a "white genocide" against Afrikaners, this refugee proposal looks more like a plan. This shouldn't need to be said, but no, there is no "white genocide" in South Africa. Using that lie to fast-track Afrikaner "refugees" to the front of the line would be spitting in the faces of the millions of non-white refugees who have been waiting for years to get admitted into this country.